Dan Mitchell wrote in the New York Times on March 11th that television may be on its last legs. Certainly the illustration of a television set with a cane and drooping aerial does not bode well for the health of that medium, however, Over the Air (OTA) and Cable while they may have a cold, are far from needing life support.

Mr. Mitchell quoted from the Chartreuse (BETA) blog in which its author, Mr. Campbell writes, "Broadcast television is dead." He also went on to say that "Still, despite the bluster, Mr. Campbell's underlying point is true enough."

Clearly, broadcasters had better get hip and quickly to the subtle but steady shift in the perception of people who see ITV/IPTV as a serious contender to OTA and Cable. Early adopters have embraced devices like the video ipod, DVR's, SlingBox, PSP and these users are leading the way. Once people can cherry pick what programming they want, whenever they want it and mobile platforms are zapping content to users via 3G or Wi-Max networks, a tipping point will occur just as when the masses realized Broadband had significant value over dial-up. That said however, OTA and Cable are not going away for some time for many reasons, just a few of which are listed.

- Huge installed base in hardware. It's not likely your new DLP has a NIC card.
Does that mean people are going to toss their 2k set for a Windows® XP
Media Center pc?
- There is some good content OTA and on cable; people do watch "The News Hour" on PBS, "Frontline", "House", "Sopranos", "Big Love", "Real Sports" and "The Daily Show". Well, at least I do.
- Form factor; plenty of people do not want to view content at 320x280 or even 640x480 pixels. Some do not want to view on a pc, and there is still a ways to go before the two devices merge.
- It is going to take more than what might be a one-time ad placement on Rocketboom for agencies to shift their clients over to what is still a nascent and fragmented delivery platform.

I am a firm believer in ITV/IPTV and want it to succeed for many reasons however, I am not willing to go out on a limb and yell that TV is dead yet. That reminds me of another "Monty Python's Flying Circus" skit in which sheep try to fly.

Tourist: Uh...those ARE sheep aren't they?
Shepherd: Yeh.
Tourist: Hmm, thought they were. Only, what are they doing up in the trees?
Shepherd: A fair question, and one that in recent weeks 'as been much on my mind. It's my considered opinion that they're nesting'.
Tourist: Nesting?
Sheppard: Aye.
Tourist: Like birds?
Sheppard: Exactly. It's my belief that these sheep are laboring under the misappre'ension that they're birds. Observe their behavior. Take for a start the sheep's tendency to 'op about the field on their 'ind legs. Now witness their attempts to fly from tree to tree. Notice that they do not so much fly as...plummet.

(Baaa baaa... flap flap flap ... whoosh ... thud.)