Wanted TV viewers
According to an article in AP, there were about 2.5 million fewer people watching television in the past two months, principally the major media outlets such as ABC, CBS, NBC and Fox, compared to the same period in the prior year.
“Scariest of all for the networks, however, is the idea that many people are now making their own television schedules. The industry isn't fully equipped to keep track of them, and as a result the networks are scrambling to hold on to the nearly $8.8 billion they collected during last spring's ad-buying season.”
The implications are significant. Even if the pattern is shifting and not declining as the Networks assert my sense is that people, especially the 18-34 demo is shifting away from the Networks in favor of other options such as on-line video, Second Life, PSP or music. But without any statistical relevant data, it is all open to speculation.
“This year, for the first time, Nielsen is measuring viewership in the estimated 17 percent of homes with digital video recorders - but it only counts them in the ratings of a specific show if they watch it within 24 hours of the original air time.”
I personally watch content off my TIVO days or even weeks after the airdate so according to Nielsen that data is not counted in the shows overall score. Do you watch all your DVR content within that 24-hour window?
"Television has made billions based on how many people watch a show at its regular time. That idea may already be obsolete. So should the industry use DVR viewing when setting ad rates? If so, how quickly must people watch the shows - within two days? A week? What about people who watch shows on their cell phones or on network Web sites, which Nielsen doesn't measure yet? Later this month Nielsen will begin measuring how many people watch commercials. Should those be used to compute advertising costs?
Right now, none of those questions have answers.
“However, "if we continue to do business assuming people will watch television as they always have," said NBC's Wurtzel, "it's a dead-end game."
The traditional nuclear family has long since morphed into a diverse landscape where “Choice” defines what works for people, do execs at the TV networks know what year it is?
Also, read my article from the 2006 TV Week Media Planning Conference
